Modeling intensification decisions in the Kilombero Valley floodplain: A Bayesian belief network approach
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Citation
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Identification
| Title: | Main Title: Modeling intensification decisions in the Kilombero Valley floodplain: A Bayesian belief network approach |
| Description: | Abstract: The Kilombero Valley floodplain in Tanzania is a major agricultural area. Government initiatives and projects supported by international funding have long sought to boost productivity. Due to increasing population pressure, smallholder farmers are forced to increase their output. Nevertheless, the level of intensification is still lower than what is considered necessary to increase production and support smallholder livelihoods significantly. This article aims to better understand farmers’ intensification choices and their interdependent determinants. We propose a novel modeling approach for identifying determinants of intensification and their interrelationships by combining a Bayesian belief network (BBN), experimental design, and multivariate regression trees. Our approach complements existing lower-dimensional statistical models by considering uncertainty and providing an easily updatable model structure. The BBN is constructed and calibrated using data from a survey of 304 farm households. Our findings show how the data-driven BBN approach can be used to identify variables that influence farmers’ decision to choose one technique over another. Furthermore, the most important drivers vary widely, depending on the intensification options being considered. |
| Identifier: | 10.1111/agec.12740 (DOI) |
Responsible Party
| Creators: | Bisrat Haile Gebrekidan (Author), Thomas Heckelei (Author), Sebastian Rasch (Author) |
| Funding Reference: | Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG): CRC/TRR 228: Future Rural Africa: Future-making and social-ecological transformation |
| Publisher: | Wiley |
| Publication Year: | 2023 |
Topic
| TRR228 Topic: | Economy |
| Related Subproject: | A3 |
| Subjects: | Keywords: Water, Economy, Livelihood, Household Data |
| Geogr. Information Topic: | Economy |
File Details
| Filename: | Gebrekidan_2022_Modeling_intensification_decisions_in_the_Kilombero_Valley_floodplain.pdf |
| Data Type: | Text - Journal Article |
| File Size: | 2.5 MB |
| Date: | Available: 12.09.2022 |
| Mime Type: | application/pdf |
| Data Format: | |
| Language: | English |
| Status: | Completed |
Constraints
| Download Permission: | Free |
| Download Information: | Open access |
| General Access and Use Conditions: | According to the TRR228DB data policy agreement. |
| Access Limitations: | According to the TRR228DB data policy agreement. |
| Licence: | [Creative Commons] Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) |
Geographic
Specific Information - Publication
| Publication Status: | Published |
| Review Status: | Peer reviewed |
| Publication Type: | Article |
| Article Type: | Journal |
| Source: | Agricultural Economics |
| Source Website: | https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/15740862 |
| Issue: | 1 |
| Volume: | 54 |
| Number of Pages: | 21 (23 - 43) |
Metadata Details
| Metadata Creator: | Clara Höller |
| Metadata Created: | 11.09.2023 |
| Metadata Last Updated: | 11.09.2023 |
| Subproject: | A3 |
| Funding Phase: | 2 |
| Metadata Language: | English |
| Metadata Version: | V50 |
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| Page Visits: | 28 |
| Metadata Downloads: | 0 |
| Dataset Downloads: | 0 |
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Adequate reference when this dataset will be discussed or used in any publication or presentation is mandatory. In this case please contact the dataset creator.
Adequate reference when this dataset will be discussed or used in any publication or presentation is mandatory. In this case please contact the dataset creator.
